In 1972, scientists from the massachusetts institute of technology made a bold prediction by developing a scientific model that considered the way that humans and the planet interact with each other. The researchers determined that society was heading toward collapse by the mid 21st century, driven largely by the forces of growing population and capital over exploiting limited planetary resources. Nearly 50 years later, a researcher at one of the largest accounting firms in the world checked in on the infamous study to see how the model has compared with reality turns out we’re right on schedule for our predicted demise, which is great because there’s nothing worse than A fashionably, late, doomsday event to stay up to date with latest top stories make sure to subscribe to this youtube channel by clicking the button. Above this video, the new study spotted by vice, was conducted by gaia harrington. The sustainability and dynamic system analysis lead at accounting, giant kpmg. It serves as an update to the classic research which was published under the title. The limits to growth as part of her master’s thesis at harvard university harrington analyzed the model using 10 variables to check in on how predictive it has been population fertility rates, mortality rates, industrial output, food production services, non renewable resources, persistent pollution, human welfare and ecological footprint. By taking the models, projections of these indicators and comparing them to empirical data, she was able to determine how closely the scientists were able to predict our reality, as well as figure out what trajectory we are currently on, as it turns out we’re chugging, along in line With two scenarios, and neither are particularly good there’s – the comprehensive technology ct scenario in which economic decline starts at about czech’s watch now, actually, it suggests a number of negative outcomes, including a short term dip in food production and wild swings across a number of categories, including Industrial output, as population levels out the good news, if you want to call it that, is that society doesn’t collapse.

Under these circumstances, our habit of draining resources comes to an end as new technology develops and food production eventually recovers things aren’t, so rosy along the second track that we can take known as the business as usual scenario. This one assumes that we make basically no changes to our current behavior. Much like the ct scenario, this track projects that economic growth will start sputtering out soon, hitting a wall around twenty thirty, but instead of a brief blip or stagnation, the businesses usual trajectory sees things starting to collapse, population, food production, industrial output and other categories. All take a steep decline around twenty with pollution skyrocketing as we rapidly exploit and burn the planet’s remaining available resources, with complete disregard for the consequences. Both scenarios thus indicate that continuing business as usual, that is pursuing continuous growth, is not possible. Harrington concludes in her research. Even when paired with unprecedented technological development and adoption business, as usual is modeled by limits to growth would inevitably lead to declines in industrial capital, agricultural output and welfare levels within this century. The one scenario in which we aren’t plagued by some sort of major global disruption, the stabilized world scenario – is technically not out of reach. But the new study warns that the window for getting on that track is closing quickly and it would take real effort to get there. First. We’D have to acknowledge that economic growth cannot happen at an exponential rate forever. Eventually, things have to level off and we need to preemptively align ourselves with that at the world economic forum in 2020, harrington suggested pursuing an economic theory known as a growth which prioritizes alternate markers for economic success, such as sustainability over traditional indicators like gdp.

If there is optimism to be found in a study that confirms we are hurtling toward economic disaster and societal collapse, it’s that we’ve got some time to figure things out. The next 10 years are likely to be the bellwether for our fate and we can still beat the buzzer pledges to dramatically cut down on fossil fuels and reduce greenhouse gas emissions will go a long way toward making sure we don’t exhaust natural resources.