Stock, Nasdaq eed To Panic… YET! [Nasdaq, SP500, TSLA, AMC, Bitcoin, Stock Market]
We’Ll also be talking about our technical analysis levels for the s: p, 500, nasdaq, bitcoin, gold, apple, tesla, amc and more, as we said, yesterday, was a little bit scary, but was it just a normal pullback in the bigger upwards trend? It certainly seems so, but there’s a lot to unpack stay tuned. Okay, everybody! Well, as we were well aware, yesterday was a little bit of a bloodbath on the market with many stocks down at multiple percentage points anywhere down from one to four or even five percent. On the day and some of the meme stocks down as much as 12 on the open, big rebounds occurred and that’s, partly due to the level we hit, i believe on the s p, 500 and we were hitting on several stocks and we’ll talk about that. Very, very soon, some notables, where the banks continued their decline. The main reason that did happen was because, when you think about it, if we have yields such as the 10 year yield going down to the 1.2 levels, that’s not good for banks – 10 year, 1.2 percent doesn’t sound great for profits. Does it let’s have a look here at the nasdaq, the dow jones, the iwm russell? They were all almost the same point. Six percent two point: nine: two percent spread. You can see that big rebound early in the session, followed by some nice consolidation near the end, and if we go around and we think about all of this as well, we can see that the sectors that we’re doing the poorest, the financial sector, the best sector, The biotech sector had some pretty rough days recently and then the rest were all spread through the middle, so the question then becomes: was there any news? Well, i have something to tell you guys.
This is a classic case of finding an excuse to reset some people’s positions. Maybe there was a few too many calls that were expiring. That wall street wanted to take some money off. Maybe something else was going on, but you know what, if i search here on finviz’s news site, look at this typing growth spell it correctly would be the right way to do it. Hey and look at this growth concerns way. Growth slows growth, risk growth risk come on guys. Do we really believe this? This is not the reason it fell. It fell because they were manipulating it down. We always know that when things like margin gets really really high, which it is at the moment wall street see where the positions are, they will attack those positions and that’s exactly what’s occurred. This has been going on for decades and it’s, nothing new it’s, always some random excuse that they come up with, and we have to be able to look through that and one of the ways we can always look through. That is, of course, looking at our technical analysis levels, we’ll start off here with the dollar index and you’ll notice that it’s kind of just holding steady and firm around this zone, all i’m really doing with the dollar index this week is looking for this weekly closure. Above the 50 exponential moving average, and at this point it has pulled down substantially so let’s see where this ends up closing after the friday session is upon us and closed and we’ll reassess this on the weekend.
That’S really as much as we can do. The volatility index or vixx did spike heavily. Yesterday. I’Ve got a little bit of a tip for everybody, and that is that if we hit a daily 20 exponential moving average for the first time and the vic spikes like this and you’re in a vic’s position and it’s spiking that hard, the 20 ema tends to Pick up in terms of dip purchasing now, as soon as you see a dip purchase what happens to the volatility index it slides down. So there was a good tip here and someone messaged me about it and i said yeah that’s the thing it’s it’s, that initial shock and the volatility index has a very hard time, usually continuing to be shocked. If you actually go to a weekly – and you have a look at the mix over time other than last year – look how often it spikes above 20 and fails right around that level. It’S not very often that you’ll be correct and it will be that 15 or that 18 or that other 18 period in multiple years. Very rarely does the vic stay above the 20 for long. So if you’re getting a spike and you’ve been correct, congratulations to you and maybe you should think about the positioning that you’re doing now. You may disagree with me, but that’s the way i see it tlt. This is the one i’m going to continue to watch for more signs of weakness through the july period.
If we continue to see tlt, which is the 20 year treasury bonds and remember, i’ve, told you about how the bond traders they’re smarter than we think, even though it’s stupid, and we understand that bonds. Don’T give you great returns when bond money is coming through and it’s flowing. It can be a early indicator that something is wrong with the market and we are going to be laser focused with our bear goggles potentially on here with this one. So we get a long leg. Doji closure above the daily 200. i’ll be very interested to see how the friday session and our continuation occurs. If we’re sitting at a 155 on the 20 year yields or the 20 year bonds – and we basically are seeing all time highs in the s p 500 later on in july, i’ll tell you what i’m definitely going to be changing my tune, because this is the Type of thing that i pay a lot of attention to in the markets – and i believe a lot of people should be let’s – have a look at gold gold hovering around coiling above the range we obviously have that breach of the resistance that’s occurred and now we’re Coiling, above that, we even can create some new kind of technical resistance and support levels. So we can go down into something like a two hour, you’ll notice that we have the weak and the closure around this point. And then, of course, we have some pretty strong support now, that’s also around that 17.
Let me get the better line here. 17.93, so we have a bit of a range. We know where the buyers are. We know where the sellers are. We know that if the market cleans above this and closes, we go to the next level and i think the next level somewhere around 1845 from a technical perspective. The main reason why that’s there is because that’s previous resistances over here and previous supports and previous support, so it makes sense that this is the next zone that gold wants to pump to if it can close above and we’ll, be watching that, together on the channel And letting you know when we’re seeing those types of signs, speaking of signs that we saw, you know what congratulations to amc traders as well uh yeah, it couldn’t have worked out better for you um. Now. Some people disagree with me on this, but the closure below here and of course, then the subsequent movement down to 40 53, i believe, was ordained in many ways by this range by the weakening lower highs. We talked about the trigger happening here. We talked about the 40 level and instantly yesterday. Buying pressure came straight into the amc and it bounced straight up now where to now i don’t know, but that was definitely the buy, and this was of course, the cell into that zone. I love it when technicals make sense, and you know what people may disagree with me, but you can go through the videos you can go through the last couple of weeks and we’ve been talking consistently about this approach and i’m glad it’s worked out and hopefully a Few of you have been able to uh look at that.
Put it into your own analysis, and you know ideally make some money from it. Let’S have a look here at tesla what’s, going on with tesla, so it’s come down to the point of absolutely no return. It hit the daily 200 simple moving average. That is this green line. You can see how that’s intersecting. Here we hit the previous resistance. We hit the bottom trend line. We hit the top trend line that it had breached above over here and maybe all of the stars aligned with the 20 exponential moving average on the s. P, 500 and buyers came in pretty hot. This is a good turnaround for tesla i’d love to see it continue. I’Ve talked about several times here on the channel that i think 700 is the true breakout for participation here for this one, if you’re in tesla and you’re wondering well where to now. You know 670 seems like the natural kind of resistance and then at that point, this previous level of support may kind of create a little bit of selling you breach this level 700 of course, and then you breach 700 well, then we’re, starting to talk 750, 780 And a true breakout to the upside trend line seems to be holding very very well, so we’ll continue to bring this one out and we’ll use that in the future, as well, to make decisions on tesla excellent work well done to everyone, and i wish you all – The best let’s have a look here at the daily s: p 500 wow wow wow, wow i’m.
Glad that the plan worked out in terms of the dip purchase did work daily 20. Exponential moving averages make a lot of sense here on the us 500 and when you go through history, it’s going to tell you or show you these kind of signs, generally speaking, what’s going to happen is you’ll have like a big pull off on the index. You’Ll have a pullback to the 20 and that will be met by some kind of deep buyer demand. Does that mean that the sell off’s over no it’s just a good indicator that there’s going to be some buyers here, because the 20 exponential moving average is basically the mean reversion and most of the time when you get a nice pull off that’s where buyers do Come in at least initially let’s dial this in now, actually using the spx and just have a quick look at that bounce there. It is, and let’s have a look at the two hour. What are we seeing on the real market? Well, we are seeing a potential problem. Okay, and that is that we have previous supports over here. That became resistance is the two hour chart, pretty good chart and 20 exponential is now acting as resistance, but, more importantly than that, the previous support is acting as resistance on the friday session. The bulls must command this zone if they command and close above this, then they can push the market back to the 4360, and that will be, of course, a huge positive for the market and signal most likely all time highs being approached throughout the session over the Next week, but if it does bounce down and move through and close below this in many ways, we have a peak trough, lower peak, lower trough situation on lower time frame such as the one hour, 15 minutes, etc, and this could bring a further deeper pullback.
And i would say that deeper pullback goes to at least the daily 50 exponential or somewhere around there that’s calling for a 42 13. Now i feel like it’s, not quite right for the market to go just yet i’ve been talking about. We have to be cautious. We have to be very, very, very safe with our risk, but maybe it’s not just yet that this happens and i feel like there should be a new all time high. Maybe we pushed to these to these uh community trend lines such as the one we’ve been using towards the short, and if that happened, the pair goggles, they would be coming on, because i became even more clear to me that the market is incredibly overextended and requires Potentially a 10 to 15 percent pullback, so we’ll be watching, but that two hour and one hour chart i’d, have them dialed in on the friday session for sure another one. That was really great that we analyzed during the live analysis, which we’ll be doing one hour before the new york open tonight. For our friday, extravaganza we’ll have a quick look here and the 20 exponential was another great pickup zone. It was the buy the dip yesterday. You’Ll notice it slams straight into this zone and buyers came in. Why? Because they’ve been coming in every single time, it becomes that self fulfilling prophecy and as long as the market makes new all time peaks when it comes down and tests the 20, it usually holds up when you’ve got to be careful.
Is the market doesn’t make a new all time peak and then comes and test the 20 again? Do i buy here? No, no, no! No! No! No! We don’t touch that guys. That is the danger zone. Something is wrong in the market and we need to be aware of it ndx. This is the weekly as it sits. So this is the nasdaq if that goes like this it’s a long leg, doji showing that the nasdaq has no idea what it wants to do. One more trade day session, we’ll find out, as we mentioned, weekly rsi well above the 70. Now this is a very clear sign that we’re at the end of the extension and we’ve, even got, of course, macd as well on the divergence in terms of our strength. Not coming through for it nice pickup, through this session, we did see the bullishness come back in too early to call something like a bear market coming through here, uh yeah. I don’t really think there’s that much signs from ndx i’m actually going to use the s p 500, to give us a better idea and we’ll just be looking for the s p 500 to do the right thing. At the end of the day, the s p. 500 generally rules and we use the nasdaq when it’s, giving us the clearer signal – and i think the s p is the best signal at this stage. Let’S have a look at the russell 2000, so we breached underneath this support here at 221, you’ll notice it tests the support it basically broke through gapped underneath pulled all day and then closed right on the level.
So it clearly has no idea what it wants to do in the middle of the range. So this is the middle of the bigger overall range if we start to sell off through the friday session – and we do something like this what’s going to happen most likely. The 211 will be hit next week and we’ll actually see further sell off in the iwm. The russell 2000, but it’s too close to tell the friday session again, will show us where the bulls and the bears are, and then we can start positioning a little bit better. Let’S have a look at bitcoin market. This market has been abysmal recently from the ta perspective and that’s because of the fud because of all of the uncertainty going on the crypto world and just generally the lack of interest from a lot of people it’s all about how many people can we get into The market and we need all the paychecks, we need maximum interest and that has been waning recently because people, ultimately a lot of them, are seeking great returns and they’ve seen the great returns in things like the meme, stonks they’ve, seen great returns in the stock market And other asset classes, so they haven’t come in here. You’Ll notice, the weekly – and this is what i’m looking at. I want to see a nice rejection week. You know if we get another rejection week here, i’m, almost i’m, almost just like so sure that that’s going to be a huge deal for the for the next week.
I actually feel like it’s the end of this whole drama with pulling it down. But if we close like this type of candle, especially if we close down here in the bottom bit, that would be very, very negative, so the weekly is really the only technical i’m looking at right now, if you go to something like a daily, you know. Does this really make sense to anybody i mean some people might go. Oh i draw you know i’m, drawing lines here and i’m, drawing like a trend line and it’s broken below that and looks bearish yeah. It doesn’t look strong i’m just going to bet with the idea that generally, the asset class is relatively strong, and at this stage we haven’t seen the weekly close, so it’s it’s very confused at that point, another confused one is ethereum again nothing much going on here. I think really the only chart i’m looking at other than the weekly is going to be btc shorts and you can see the whale started loading up yesterday i put this on. The twitter follow fx evolution on twitter. If you’re interested, i put it on there as soon as they started loading this up, because, if they’re loading shorts and this continues to rise, even though bitcoin may rise initially, this generally means the whales are trying to push it through to the next level and we’ll Have to watch this incredibly closely if this goes all the way back up to here, i don’t have good feeling about bitcoin.
I really don’t so it’s, ultimately in the hands of the whales and the nasty shorter’s hands and we’ll be watching it uh every single time. As much as we can good luck, everybody thank you very much for watching the video remember to subscribe. If you enjoy it and give us a thumbs up and remember, we’re, starting one hour before the friday session, that’s half an hour back so one hour before the new york, open we’ll, be there and we’ll be looking at the markets live.