Earth, Geomagnetic storm, Solar flare The First X-Flare of Solar Cycle 25 | Space Weather News 07.06.2021
That could pick activity right back up again. Those stories and more in the news this week, Music, this space weather forecast, is sponsored in part by millersville university. Come get certified in broadcast space weather visit, millersville.edu swen space weather this week has been a total game changer. As we take a look at our front side, sun, you can see back on the second along the sun’s west limb. You start seeing a little bit of a region begin to grow and it starts growing fast. This is region 2838 and within a less than a day of it being formed, it begins to fire off flares as first it starts off with c class flares early on july 3rd, but then, by by mid morning, wham it fires off an m class flare. This was an m 2.7 and it launches a solar storm off to the sun’s west limb. Then it waits for a second and then look at this wham here’s an x 1.5 flare. Oh, my goodness it’s the first x class flare of solar cycle 25, but it doesn’t wait long and wham there’s. Another m class flare goes off. Oh my goodness. This thing is just rapid firing, it’s like pop pop pop and then for the next 24 hours. It continues to fire more flares. Finally, it fires, a parting, shot, bam right. There that’s another m class flare and then it begins to rotate off of the sun’s west limit behind the sun and sure enough.
But no it’s still firing off big flares. But now that it’s occulted, meaning that it’s hiding behind the sun’s west limb it’s harder to see – and we can’t really see those flares anymore, so we’re protected. So for now the show is beginning to die down. Thankfully, but while this whole region has been giving us this incredible, paparazzi show with the flash bulbs look over in the northeast, you can see region 28′ beginning to emerge and sure enough. This region, i don’t, know if it’s going to be repeating what 2838 did, but it’s already fired off a c class flare. So it looks like it wants to join the party, so we’re keeping our eyes on this one to see whether or not it’s gon na start becoming a major flare player as well. But boy it’s been a busy busy day and now taking a look at the far side of the sun. This is stereo a and it’s looking at the sun just a little bit from the side, but believe it or not, stereo’s view didn’t get to see any of that flare action that we saw at earth. As a matter of fact, you can’t even see region 2838. In stereo’s view at all, but what you can see are the new regions 28′ and even a region behind it in the northern hemisphere, that’s forming quite rapidly, and you can even see a little flare activity once again from region. 28, ‘.
So we’re going to be watching these regions, as they rotate into earth view to see whether or not they’re going to start becoming big m flare players. Just like region 2838 did. We also have a big coronal hole, that’s going to be rotating into earth view and in about three days or so, and that could actually bring us a chance for some fast solar, wind and some aurora in about 10 days or more. So how do all these solar flares affect us here at earth and in near earth? Space well, let’s. Take a look at the x ray flux. In fact, as you look at it, you can see it was pretty quiet until about the third and man it’s, like a light, switch flipped on and suddenly goes pop pop pop pop pop good night it’s, almost like popping popcorn. There are so many flares. In fact, there are 11 flares in total and four of them are major flares that cause radial blackouts and in the middle of all that you can see that x class flare occurring now. With that x class flare, we actually got more than just a typical radial blackout. There was also a radio burst associated with it and that’s when the sun screams at really high frequencies, and this is what’s so important. With things like space traffic, we did get some data from the e callisto network from the blind observatory. That in fact showed that this radio burst actually went up to about 750 megahertz.
Now that may not seem like all that big a deal but that’s about halfway up to the l band, and there are satellites that you know like gps and satellite phones. They actually communicate in the l band frequencies, so, although we didn’t quite get there with this particular radio burst, it is a reminder that when the sun screams it can block radio communications from satellites to the ground. So we do have to be careful. Meanwhile, as we take a look down at earth, look at the upper atmosphere now this is the d wrap model and you can see it the upper atmosphere, just lighting up like a christmas tree everywhere, you see the lights going on, that is a solar flare, that’s Occurring the brighter ones are obviously the bigger solar flares and what they’re doing is that they’re they’re. This is the day side of earth and they’re lighting up the the and ionizing the upper atmosphere causing radio communications blackouts. So, my goodness, everybody on amateur radio on earth, dayside that had to deal with these flare were hearing lots of noise on the bands. In fact, some of them even told me they thought their radios were broken. So this is a good reminder that our sun is waking up and that radio communications, both from satellites to the ground and also ground based communications, can be affected by big solar flares and it. This is just the way it is in our modern era, and for those of you who are concerned that the solar storms being launched during those big flares over the past couple days that they might be earth directed don’t worry about it they’re not.
We can confirm that by taking a look at the coronagraph images, these are chronograph images from lasko aboard the soho spacecraft and you’re. Looking at the sun from the earth’s perspective, now, let’s take a look at the difference images because it shows the details better and you can see not just one two but three solar storms being launched in that short period of time, that’s from two big m flares And the x class flare but notice that they’re launched in a very small angle. They don’t have a big, wide signature, all the way around the sun, which is what we would call a halo or a partial halo. The fact that they’ve got a small angle shows that they’re very much not earth directed these have been launched off to the west. So, as we take a look at our in law, solar storm prediction model. Now this version is the moss walk version from the met office in the uk and you’re still looking the top panel’s density, the bottom panel’s velocity and you’re still looking at the sun from the north pole with earth being off to the right. But you can see there’s a lot of solar storms that have been launched as of late. My goodness, solar cycle 25 is taking off isn’t it and the last two of those solar storms being shown here. Those are the ones that have been launched. Uh to the west during those m and x class flares – and you can see it’s not even close to hitting earth so take a breather, rest easy and we can relax switching to our moon.
We are now passing through the third quarter, phase on our way to a new moon with the new moon being on the 10th, so unite sky watchers. Now is a perfect time to catch those dim objects in the sky, switching to our solar storm conditions and aurora possibilities. Over the coming week, we do have a coronal hole, that’s going to be rotating into the earth strike zone here over the next day or so. But honestly, as we take a look at stereo a we haven’t really seen that much of a boost in fast, solar, wind, so i’m, not really sure it’s going to hit us all that hard. Sadly, so we may not get much of aurora from it. However, taking a look at space, weather prediction, center numbers at high latitudes they’re expecting unsettled conditions, but they have given us about a 30 chance of a major storm that will wane over the next few days and then kind of quiet down now mid latitudes, we’re. Also expecting unsettled, maybe even quiet conditions, but we do have up to about a 25 chance of active conditions. But again we haven’t seen much in the way of fast solar wind at the stereo so i’m, a little bit concerned that we’re not going to see as much from this fast solar, wind stream as we were hoping but we’ll keep our fingers crossed for your aurora Photographers, because i know you you’re dying to get some action switching to our solar flare and particle radiation storm outlook over the coming week, believe it or not.
We still have some flare activity that we have to worry about, even though region 28 38 has finally rotated to the sun’s far side. We still have three reactive regions on the earth facing disk right now, and region 2835 still has a big flare risk. So right now we’re sitting at about a 15 chance of m class flares, which means gps users and amateur radio operators on earth’s day side. We do have a risk for radio blackout still and that’s, going to last until region 2835 rotates off of the earth facing disk in the next couple days. So we’re going to have to kind of pay attention, even though it seems like all the activity is kind of subsided for now. Meanwhile, solar flux is staying in the low 90s and it may dip down into the high 80s over this week, as some of these regions do rotate off of the earth facing disc, but it all depends upon what region 28’ does and how quickly it grows. Now we also have some new regions that will be rotating into earth view from the sun’s far side and that will affect the solar flux as well, so we’re probably going to linger anywhere between the mid 80s and maybe even the mid 90s over this coming week. So that’s pretty good for marginal radio propagation we’re, almost getting up into the good range, so that’s kind of nice. So the space weather this week has been a total game.
Changer. Not only have we had the first x class flare of solar cycle 25, but this could signal that activity is going to continue to ramp up so amateur radio operators and emergency responders. Hey you might get to enjoy the idea of solar flux increasing causing that radio propagation all over the globe to begin to get better and better. Now, of course, you’re going to have to deal with a little bit more noise on the bands and, of course some you know radio blackouts from time to time from the saw the solar flares happening. But you know who cares about that right, it’s, great radio, propagation! Now you know aurora photographers you, on the other hand, well, we do have a corona hole, that’s rotating in through the earth strike zone, which should send us some fast solar wind, but it may only be a small pocket of fast solar wind if any, because we Didn’T see anything at stereo, a which is kind of sad, so likely it’s a very narrow beam of fast, solar, wind, and that may mean we could get a little bit of something at high latitudes, but probably not down into mid latitude. So don’t be super excited about this particular chase, so we’ll just have to kind of sit this one out. I think now also you gps users. Well, this is a kind of a mixed blessing for you having the solar flux going up, isn’t so great for gps, especially down at low latitudes.
And of course, you know if you’ve been having trouble at the dawn dusk. You know in the dawn dusk range over the past couple days. Well, you can basically blame the sun it’s, not your drone it’s, just the sun screaming so you’re going to have to worry about that kind of stuff in the future, as we continue to have radio blackouts from some of these new regions that are beginning to. Finally, pop i’m tamitha skove the space weather woman.