NFL Sunday Ticket, Apple Professional's Guide to Football Betting | NFL Betting Tips from Teddy Covers and Kelly Stewart
com today we’re going to go over teddy’s favorite nfl betting tips for the 2021 season teddy. Before we get started, please tell the people what to expect when purchasing your nfl season win report. Sure i mean the season win. Report comes in two parts, part one is out and available right now it has four plays, including a five percent uh big ticket report. Uh part two will come out uh at the latter stages of the pre season. Um i’ll probably add an additional season, win recommendation or two uh at that time, and of course you know this is a report that i’ve been doing. Basically, since i moved to vegas, i started doing it in 2001 and during that span, i’ve gone 91 and 41 uh with my season win total recommendations, including a 14 3 uh mark with the five percent big ticket best bet so it’s. A report that i spend literally no all spring working on and into the summer uh but it’s, a report that has paid dividends for years and it pays dividends all season long kell, i’m, 57 in the nfl accounting every play every day over the last six years. Um not gon na blow you away 57, but over a long term span. I don’t know many guys are doing a lot better than that in the nfl, so uh. The work that i do early on preparing for the season win report helps out all season long. So you can get that package again right now at sportsmemo or wagertalk.
com discounted over the summer. As i mentioned teddy today, we’re gon na be talking about your top five nfl betting tips, now there’s a ton of betting tips, but i need to know the most important ones so let’s get into what is the number one betting tip you have for our viewers? It’S not about how good the teams are it’s about how good the teams are relative to their market value last year were the broncos a good team, no, the bengals, no, the giants, no, the panthers. No, the charges were at the end for most of the season. They weren’t all of those teams had winning point spread records last year. Why? Not? Because they were good teams, but because they were better than the market value than they were valued in the market. Similarly, the kansas city chiefs super bowl back to back years. They won 14 games straight up last year. They were losers against the spread. Only seven point spread wins for the entire season, all right relative to their market value. The kansas city chiefs weren’t any good same story with cleveland cleveland at their best year. In decades, they still cost their packers money with the six and ten uh point spread mark and note the value ebbs and flows. I mean the most famous example is the 2008 patriots, the team that went uh 16 0 in the regular season and won the first two playoffs game. They go nine and one ats kill everyone early and even though they’re still winning just one and eight ats down the stretch.
The chiefs last year, fairly similar six and two ats start two and nine ats finish, including the super bowl, so recognize it’s, not about how good they are it’s, how they are relatively market value and that value will ebb and flow as the season progresses. Number two is something that really resonates with me: teddy. You want to touch on how recreational bettors have an edge over the wise guys. I think this is very real kelly. This isn’t me spouting some nonsense. This is an edge and again when you’re living in vegas. Since 98, you see patterns, and the pattern is that the recreational bettors tend to do well early to mid season. The nfl – i call it october wise guys, fall in love with teams that are supposed to be good, but aren’t a lot of times. Those teams aren’t good the public doesn’t, get fooled by those same squads and recreational bettors, much more comfortable betting on a low expectation team that has gotten off to a hot start and is pretty good, whereas wise guys are still using their preseason numbers for half the Campaign october has the books got rocked weeks just about every year, often times two or three of those weeks, because betters recreationally are willing to bet what they believe, what they see with their eyes, whereas the pro bettors they’re gon na rely for extended stretches of the Regular season, they’re gon na rely on their opinions about the teams before the season it started.
So recreational bettors do have one edge over wise guys in terms of believing what you see wise guys. Don’T always do that very good point. That is something that gets me. Every single year, most notably, i believe, it’s a cleveland browns about four years ago i’m – still kicking myself for that one all right teddy number three – and this is something we preach all the time, but it’s so significant in the nfl market, because it is so sharp Get the best of the number for god’s sakes is what teddy’s notes say teddy. Please touch on why this is so important sure we spend a ton of time talking about handicapping skills. How do you break down games? What are we looking for uh? Is this a good spot or a bad spot? Most of this analysis is about different handicapping skills, but betting skills are every bit as important, if not more so, and they’re a different skill set. Okay, uh there’s an enormous enormous difference between winning games by half point versus losing them let’s, say: you’re, a 55 percent capper, okay, solid winning, capper, not anything special like i’m, not anything crazy, 55, solid, don’t get me wrong, but you’re a 55 camper. You turn two losses out of 100 into pushes so just getting the best of the number two lost in the pushes two pushes out of a hundred into wins. Okay, so, instead of going 54 44 and two you end up going 56, 42 and 200, better difference between 560 and 980 is basically uh.
Uh, almost doubling your roi off an 11 000 investment just by taking two plays out of a hundred and turning pushes into wins and two plays out of 100 turning losses into pushes. So there are some bets you want to make sunday night some bets. You want to make monday morning some during the week, some in that last hour before kickoff watch the markets. The wager talk live on screen is free, okay, pay attention to where the money is moving. The opening line report. I show what i do every single monday morning with drew martin right here on the way to talk youtube channel. We talk about. This is one you want to bet now. This is when you want to wait if you like this side hold off. If you like the under better here, if you like the over, you know, you don’t, want to bet that until kickoff, these are the types of betting skills that take time to develop, but once you develop them, it makes all the difference in your bottom line. Absolutely teddy let’s touch on those markets just a little bit more and how the markets react to certain spots, sure and again, if you’re looking for one of these tip videos where you’re like find a team that does this and bet that no we’re looking at concepts In this video – and there are a lot of recreational bettors – that just look at point, spreads and don’t understand what they’re seeing all right when lines make it.
Why is that number where it is markets are going to react to spots? Let downs look ahead. Sandwiches. You know a big game last week, a big game next week, a step down game here, a sandwich spot or divisional games, uh separated by a non conference foe in between step up games. Uh. Some teams do well stepping up in class other teams. They step up in class and that’s when you want to bet against them. Some teams annihilate lesser foes, other teams. They get that step down game and you’re lucky. If they win let alone cover, you want to pay attention to strength, to schedule, as teams step up or down to class, especially early in the season teams that go off to these great starts. If you look at their schedule after six weeks, you’re like they beat this crappy team and that crappy team and that crappy team they’re way overvalued at this stage, whereas a team might start one and five and they just played the chiefs and the bucks twice. And whoever else you know the bills early on uh they had the raymonds and now they’re facing a weak portion of their schedule. Those teams can be dramatically undervalued, so know what the markets are reacting to. If a point spread makes you go, hmm find out. Why it’s making you go home before you make your bed and last but not least, teddy let’s touch on money management. Personally, i think we should have started off with this one, but then nobody would watch the video i get it.
This is not a fun concept for a lot of recreational bettors, but please tell everyone why this is so important sure. Well, the goal is to stay in the game. Okay, if you’re a better and you have a bankroll – goes to zero you’re, not betting anymore. You have no chance to get your bankroll back to where it was all right, so money management is always key and we talk about straight betting as opposed to parlays. You know, i have no problem. If you have a separate parlay bankroll that you’re looking for long shots, you know i too bet parlay, sometimes a money line, partly he’s on the on dogs and looking for a big score. You have one good week pays for the season. You have two good weeks to make a whole lot of money. That said, the vast majority of your bets and the vast majority of your bankroll for the nfl have to be on straight bets and the most important thing that i can say when you’re seeing things clearly that’s when you up your bet sizes, what you see people Do over and over again they get in a slump they’re not seeing things clearly and they’re like oh. No, i got to get all my money back. Oh, i don’t want to pay my man, oh, i don’t want to re up and they end up making bigger bets at a time where they’re not seeing things clearly and losing you don’t up your bet sizes when you’re struggling, double or nothing on monday night.
Football is not okay, money management, yeah it’s boring, but it also keeps you in the game if you’re not in the game, you’re, probably not watching this video. Thank you teddy. Remember guys. You can get teddy’s nfl season, one report for 199 or 100 free for teddy’s full season subscribers that’s right teddy, is documented 57 over the last five years, counting every play every day.