Stock market, Stock, Apple, Nasdaq Big Traders Are Buying This? [Nasdaq, SP500, TSLA, AMC, BITCOIN, Stock Market]
Moving forward, we’ll also be talking as a community together for our technical analysis levels for the nasdaq s. P. 500, gold, bitcoin, tesla, amc and others, while memestonks did not do well. Yesterday, the fed did say some important things. The question is: have they done enough to give us a great july, or is the big bear goggles about to be put on our faces? Stay tuned to find out more so here begins our recap. Video, for, of course, the markets ended the 7th of july 2021 and straight away. When you look at a heat map here of the s p 500, you can be sure to see one big, green and that is apple apple, continues to present very good bullish movement after the breakout of the ascending triangle that we’ve spoken about as a community together During our live streams as well that you can always find on this channel one and a half hours early before the new york, open amazon, also fired pretty well in the morning, came back through the fed announcement and ended with a poultry point. Five, seven percent, but it was still a good extra further bullish day for that. Unfortunately, semiconductors got hit a little bit throughout the day, especially amd after a very nice move. There and tesla continued to suffer, maybe moving a movement down here the 635 level, but before we begin our video and cover all the markets from a technical analysis standpoint, i want to talk about what the fed said – and i think this little highlight here is probably The biggest thing that we can pay attention to at a mid june meeting fed officials said substantial.
Further progress on economic recovery was generally seen as not having been met, yet, although participants expected progress to continue according to the minutes, so the key bit here was generally seen as not having yet been met. What does that mean? It’S basically telling us that the market, or at least the fed, is going to potentially need to wait here to see more information. We’Ve been talking about two key bits of information, a slight miss and, of course, a hit is actually beneficial to the market. So slightly bad news is good that’s how we have to see the market at this stage slightly bad news is good and the main reason is we want it to be where they don’t turn the tap off anytime soon, the longer the tap is in the longer The time that the fed supports the market is available, the higher the market will go so the more bullish intentions you can have here and while that seems ridiculous, that is the reality that we’re in this happened. Similarly, in 2009, 2010 with the quantitative easing beginning off the global financial crisis, and then, of course, the run through there if you traded the markets – 14 15 16. This was all the discussion they had. When will the fed taper? How much are they going to taper by we’re scared? These were the concerns. The market continued to go up higher, though, because it took them a long time to wind it all back so let’s talk about how the markets actually interpreted this result.
Well, it was a shaky start to the morning we can see here all the indices were down. Then many of them recovered to end in the positive. Here you can see the s p 500, the dow jones and the nasdaq all ended positively, and only the russell 2000 was left behind in the dust. If we go and have a look at the sectors, it was really just the energy stocks that got beaten through the day, and this is because energy itself fell heavily u.s oil was down quite a lot on the session and things like materials industrials. All of these areas that we’ve been looking at recently um have, of course, recovered and they’re starting to move through a little bit, but realistically, i think of it as it was a nothingness day. We still don’t have a clear direction for the markets, other than being optimistic and, of course, looking at the bullish side, and why are we looking at the bullish side? Well, we know july is the best month of the year for new visitors to the channel. We’Ve been looking at this channel and or this statistic for a long time, and that is that between that period of 1928 and 2021, we need to remember june and july, are technically positive months i’m. Starting to have my doubts about july and i’ve talked to you guys a lot about this and the technicals are going to show us the way, but yeah we need to be careful here.
We need to be very, very cautious that, while july usually is good june was a pretty damn good month in the markets, and i think we’re about to hit some key points that we need to pay attention to. First, off let’s start with the dollar index and we’ll just have a look here, the daily closed at a new high. So we don’t talk about the week here. We talk about the daily close because the daily close that’s, the key ultimately to the market. We get that closure. We see, of course, now the market’s moving ahead, and what really is going to tell us that this is on and that the dollar index is really going to start moving up here is going to be the weekly if the weekly continues to hold above this 50 Exponential two more trade days for it to do so, then we believe that it can go to the 93 40 from a technical analysis aspect. This is going to mean that, of course, we see further pressure against us dollar pairs and overall u.s dollar has been mispriced and i think that’s, the big key here in the markets, bonds are being mispriced. We saw the us 10 year come down heavily off. Of course, all the inflation concerns going away, everybody and now we’re at a point where the dollar index is showing us that you know what it got, pushed too low too quickly and it’s ready for recovery.
If you put this in a bigger perspective, let’s just quickly go out to a monthly here. This is actually a giant double bottom potential setup, and what you’ll notice is that if it does go to the 9340 and it breaches past that monthly, do you know how big and significant this is for bigger hedge fund managers for bigger investors out there? This is like saying: the dollar index is ready to rise and ready to absolutely. You know, maybe even just like stampede into something like a 96 figure, so it could be. A story of the dxy is back in town over the next couple of months and we’ll. Be covering it on the channel as much as possible. The other stories us 10 year continues to slide, so this is bad for, of course, banks and financial institutions. Our target here is really this daily 200.. You can see that’s about a 1.23 percent, so that’s the basically saying to us that the expectation for interest rates over the next 10 years is incredibly low. Now i tend to not believe this. I actually think that it will turn around and it will move up, but for now the lower this goes the better. It is for things like the nasdaq or debt encumbered stocks, basically any stock that has huge amounts of debt or requires a lot of borrowing it’s. A positive sign for them if the us 10 year is down tlt 20 year bonds, another one that you might not look at very often it actually just hit the resistance.
Yesterday, the bond market is smarter than you may think. In fact, the bond market started riding. Look at this date over here, so back in 2020. If we go back in time – and we think about the 15th of january, arguably, when this whole pandemic thing became a real big reality, the bond market started rising, fears started rising and the bond market, where my defensive money goes started, rising and coming through. Then, of course, we had all that craziness and the market of course fell off heavily and then got recovered by the fed. But overall the bond market moved before the stock market actually started crashing. The stock market held pretty firm through that period, and this was one of our first tellers that something was wrong in the market. I have a look at this bond market right now and i think about what’s going on. I think okay we’ve got a trough. A peak a higher trough and then a higher peak we’ve at a resistance, but imagine if we break through that resistance and start moving forward. Is this a big concern for us, potentially as bulls or optimists in the market? Right now, i think it’s telling us that there’s some missed price here – the bond market’s telling us something about that and we need to be very concerned. The bear goggles truly might have to be put on at this point, because the bond market tends to not lie. It tends to be a safe haven and, if they’re stacking cash into it.
As in the big guys, we need to pay attention as a community. U.S oil also fell off. It makes me note, and there’s no surprises here really for me. It hit that full on peak resistance, i’ve already clapped everyone about how we followed this, and i think we did really really well i’m gon na hold off on any other oil kind of positions for a while. While we wait for this thing to either churn through some coil or consolidation structure or pull back to the 20 exponential on the weekly and yes, i said 20 exponential on the weekly – i want to see mean reversion on this thing. You’Ll notice that yesterday us oil broke through the 20 moving average that’s, not really a positive sign for this, and i could continue to see it slide for even a little bit more with you know, of course, the two steps down one step back: two steps down: Philosophy, if you want to bear it and short it um, you know good luck, but yeah tough one to trade at this stage in the markets. Speaking of tough to trade, unless you’re going short amc, you know what can i say we did talk about it here. As a community, we spoke about this closure underneath here we spoke about the retest of the previous support and then that being acting as resistance – and i can only hope that people aren’t getting hurt by this too much if you’re in it.
Unfortunately, once you broke below the 5235, which we’d already organized as a full channel here with proofing, the reality becomes, i believe, it’s going to forty dollars, and you know what it’s still five bucks off that like that price. What do you guys think in the community down below? Is this the end for meme stocks, or are they just going to hit 40.53 and then, of course, buyers will come back in this? Is the level that you expect buyers to try to maintain control of amc? It just makes complete sense. I think we had our first precursors of the fact the rallies continue to be weaker, but once it got through here and specifically this retest here and failure, this was the end, and i can certainly see why yesterday this thing was down. So much, unfortunately, we’ll keep watching it, but yeah that’s, where it is uh tesla another one that looked quite weak. It filled the gap earlier in the session and tuesday it broke down below. And if we look at the daily, you know there’s nothing here. That’S currently positive other than if it hits 635, which it basically did yesterday we’ve got moving averages we’ve got a 635 and there could be some buyers that come back into tesla around this price i’m still going with 700 is the key bull area that i want To participate in – or at least i think, from a technical aspect, participation will occur and this is going to be the zone that i think a lot of people will target around here.
If you love tesla, i could certainly see why buyers find some buying pressure here, but yeah. These are not exactly bullish. Candles, that’s, a bad, close it’s continued on down and it’s. Really. You know time for this thing to turn around. If the bulls are going to get it back up to the 700 level, we’ll continue to follow it on the channel. So let’s talk about probably the big kahuna, the biggest thing that we need to discuss right now, and that is the nasdaq the nasdaq is extended. So i don’t usually bring on indicators on this channel. You guys know why, because they always give us a signal of bearishness if you’re looking for it. People are talking to me tom, the macd, the macd divergence man, the macd divergence, yeah it’s been there for a long time, so the macd is weakening as we’re seeing a series of higher peaks and higher troughs it makes sense. It usually is always going to do this. The other thing the rsi has gone above 70.. I agree that this is certainly an early warning sign and i i do pay attention to it to a degree. You know we had rsi above 70 over here. We need to be very aware, though, that when this did happen, look at the time it happened, so it happened, it sold off a little bit. Then it extended more and then eventually came back down to that price. So when an rsi usually comes out – and it goes above 70.
– what i see it as a little bit different to other people, other people see it as a super big negative thing. What i see it, as is at least this price, is going to be met in the future by a pullback, because if it keeps extending up and let’s say it goes to a 77 like it did, heal or an 80. there’s a high chance that at least It will pull back to this price, so it’s, one of those times where you start to neutralize yourself in the market. If you’re long, you need to start worrying about okay, where am i going to take profit? Am i going to scale out of my order? Am i happy with hodling? Am i going to put more money into the market and i always look at rsi being above 70 years? I don’t want to put any more money in the market if i’m in i’m, in if i’m trading, then i have stop losses. I have a plan and that 70 tells me stay away for now, because with fairly good certainty, you will get a price cheaper than this at some point in the next three to six months, so that’s exactly in line with what we’re thinking as well. Of course, if the market goes up to the top of our trend line here, we expect shorting pressure to come through the market it’s exactly where we expect that shorting pressure to occur. If we go over here to the us 100 it’s, following an incredible pattern, we’ve got here on the futures two hour: chart 50 exponential moving average being the deeper pullbacks and the shallower pullbacks going to the 20 exponential moving average and finding buying pressure.
You know what’s happening here in the futures, though peak trough lower peak. Will we see a lower trough breach of the 50.? The 50 is the thing i’m watching on the two hour. We’Ll be doing this on the live channel as well. I tell you what we’ve got laser eyes on this one right now, because yeah it’s getting toppy, it is in july, but the fed didn’t exactly come out and give me like, oh it’s, so great we’re going to not do any tapering in the future. They said. Yeah we’re going to do it we’re concerned. Well, we know the inflation is potentially there and they’re saying things that don’t give me exactly like: oh we’re, going to sugar rush, the market and because the market’s going so strong through june i’m, starting to get careful, there are some things rsi we just looked at And, of course, the macd that everyone else is let’s, look at this 50 over the next coming days and see whether we get a breach below this, because i think that could be an early warning sign that you know what there’s a bit of a pullback coming In here in the nasdaq will it happen time will tell we’ll check that out. Let’S have a look at the s p 500 versus the qqq, so the qqq hit one of the trend lines, which is the bottom one. That goes through other lines, not my preferred, but it did hit it yesterday and then we’ve got the qqq top trend line, which is about one and a half percent away this one over here.
The s p 500 still has room to go, so this has around three percent in terms of movement up before it hits the community trend line and the key level that we’ve been using now on the channel for months, it’s, certainly a key zone, and we will Be paying attention to it? I think we’ll probably have to see how the next 24 hours plays out for s p, if you’re taking a look at it now in the futures, and i load the futures on you’ll notice, it’s down about point two: six percent. If we go in here to the two hour chart – and we just quickly reload that again two hour 50 exponential seems to be the big key area for it with breaches underneath that being quickly met by buying pressure. So we’ll watch that one throughout the session is it weakening. Um we’ll see how wall street pick it up on the thursday session there’s, just not enough information for us yet to go either way: i’m neutral, neutral, neutral to slightly optimistic let’s talk about markets that suck and uh sorry crypto guys it sucks right now this market Sucks and i’m pretty disappointed. I got ta say with ethereum look: did i enter? No, we didn’t see the closure, but you know you look at this daily and you go well that’s a rejection off our key critical resistance zone that 2423.90 area. We wanted a closure. Above that, on the daily, or at least the eight hour time frame, we didn’t get it and you can see now the pressure’s being put onto the sell side on ethereum.
I think this is the chart that i was looking for for the lead and you’ll see. Even this trend line here, pressure being put onto it on the eight hour, is it closed at the time this recording? No, it could fully rebound, but not great. This was the time for it to close through it didn’t do it. I think this shows us as a community. Closure is the key when we can do it bitcoin same kind of thing. You know we’re going back down to the 32 kind of eight level. You can see the resistance, the sell off that’s occurring here, it’s currently trading at 33 200.. I haven’t looked at btc shorts, yet let’s do that together now uh btc shorts, yeah slide increase not enough, so it’s not really showing us that the whales are doing anything. But that’s some weakness coming back into the crypto world and the ethereum uh not being able to break through 2400 really sucked, because i think that was going to be a catalyst for things like ada. It was going to be a catalyst for all the rest of the crypto markets, and so many of them were setting up for great breakouts that’s. The way trading goes patience is key.