Tropical cyclone, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Will Elsa Rapidly Intensify into Major Hurricane Elsa?
We are going to track hurricane elsa and see if it will rapidly intensify while traveling through the caribbean before recurving north into the gulf of mexico, with a potential impact with florida. If you like, detailed weather breakdowns hit the subscribe button and notification bell to get all my upcoming videos so we’re, looking at the latest satellite image from the go 16 infrared vision and we see what was left of – invest 95 l, uh moving just to the east Of jamaica at this point this morning we had tropical storm elsa upgraded to hurricane elsa, as as it was moving through barbados and the lesser antilles islands, then behind it we have our tropical wave, which looked impressive yesterday, but has really shriveled up today, so it’s very Unlikely we would see any development anytime soon from this storm and then the tropical way behind it, even though it looks impressive, is very disorganized and will likely dissipate as well and i’ll show you that later on in this video, so here’s, the latest satellite image from Hurricane elsa, as it moves through the lesser antilles islands and is now entering the caribbean sea and you see it’s got a very well uh defined structure. It’S got that outer band uh buzzsaw, look so it’s a very healthy tropical uh, well it’s a hurricane now and here’s. The latest forecast from the national hurricane center as of 2 p.m. Eastern and it’s forecasted to continue moving to the west northwest still at 29 miles per hour, so it hasn’t really slowed down much yet it’s got maximum sustained winds of 85 miles per hour and it looks to maybe possibly brush right to haiti or just stay off To the shore and go through that sweet spot between jamaica and cuba, and we even have tropical storm watches in effect now for the cayman islands before it, moves northwest towards cuba and then enters the gulf of mexico and then starts curving up towards the east coast.
Of the united states, possibly making landfall around tampa clearwater or maybe even up to the panhandle of florida, it’s still uncertain at that point, but we’ll show you the different models as we go through this video, so here’s the spaghetti track guidance models of the different models Showing where this storm could go, it could go as far east as through the bahamas as far west as the florida panhandle and western cuba looks less and less likely that we could see a impact with jamaica, but i still have it in my cone of uncertainty Because this track could just go a little bit further to the south, we’ve seen it before and i’m, just keeping it as a possibility. Just so jamaica is aware. So now we have our latest model intensity guidance as of 2 p.m. Uh this afternoon and we’re still seeing two uh models that are showing this could become a major category, three hurricane and i’m, going to show you even one that is possibly touching category four, but the majority of them do keep it as a category one through the Life of this storm, except for when it interacts with some land like if it goes over haiti or if it goes over cuba, depending on where it goes over on those islands because of the high mountain ranges, could dip it back down below to tropical storm strength. But if it takes that sweet track right between the islands over water, it could rapidly intensify and even get to major charac major hurricane strength, as some of these models are showing so let’s.
Look at the european and gfs models so see what they’re looking at in black is elsa as of tomorrow, saturday july 3rd in red is the wave behind it and purple the wave behind that both of those are not showing any signs of development. Just weak cyclonic vorticity, but i want you to see the difference on the european and gfs models. The european has it only as a strong tropical storm weak hurricane as it approaches hispaniola the gfs, which has been very on target for this storm. So far, has it south further south compared to the european model and still as a hurricane? Now we see on the uh wind shear model, as well as the relativity model, uh relative, humidity, sorry uh. We have an upper level ridge, overhead, so that’s. Why? We have very low wind shear and why this storm has rapidly organized as it has overnight and became a hurricane this morning. So that’s going to continue as it continues moving through the caribbean and it’s, going to have a lot of moisture to work with so it’s going to be able to maintain its strength as we go through the day today and then as we get to sunday. This is the area that’s going to get interesting saturday into sunday into monday, that’s going to be that key 24 hours late monday late saturday, through early monday. We could see this storm rapidly intensified depending on the track it takes.
The gfs has it taking going over jamaica, the european has it going over haiti and cuba on the eastern side of cuba, so that’s more mountainous. The h wharf model actually has it go through the sweet spot and before we get to that model, we do still see that upper level ridge overhead for good venting at the top of this storm very little wind shear around the low pressure center. So because of that, if we believe the placement of the center of the storm on the h wharf model, we see that by the time we get to sunday morning july 4th this is scooting just to the south of haiti, and we start to see the formation Of an eye on this storm, if you’re looking at the simulated radar satellite image – and we have wind speeds now of category 2 – strength at 80s at 96 miles per hour as we go through the day on sunday. This is now around 7 00 a.m. Eastern time before that was actually around midnight uh, we see that on daybreak, let’s, say on july 4th. We now have a category three storm with winds of 111 miles per hour, uh going between cuba, haiti and jamaica, and you see that the storm has developed on a simulated, uh satellite image, her an eye wall and actual eye where it’s cleared out in the middle Of our low pressure center showing very well ventilation because of the upper level ridge overhead and then, if the h wharf has it correct, which it did so far as of this morning, it did predict elsa to become a hurricane today.
So i’m sticking with this model to say that this could possibly get to his if it goes through that track and stays away from land before making landfall with cuba. By the time we get to monday morning, on july 5th, we could see a category 4 hurricane. Just before making landfall with the central western portions of cuba, then from there uh the european had it going uh above cuba through the western northwestern portions of the bahamas, the gfs model has it uh almost in the same position as the hwarf model at 4. Monday july 5th, and then, if we look, we still have that upper level ridge, but the there’s a just to the west, well, actually northwest of elsa. By the time we get to monday july 5th. We see that upper level trough overhead in the northeastern portion of the gulf of mexico and that’s what’s, going to curve elsa towards the north into the gulf, possibly as far east as the bahamas and the east coast of florida. More likely it’s going to go through, say like the keys of florida and then up the west coast and make a possible landfall either near the tampa, st p, clearwater area or as far north and west as panhandle florida. So if we look at the european model for tuesday july 6th, we see it’s taking more of a westerly track now compared to the past couple of days where it was making that east coast track across the bahamas and then up the east coast of the united States now it’s, going through cuba and florida through the florida streets into the gulf of mexico in that direction, whereas the gfs model already has it in the gulf of mexico and possibly re strengthening back into a hurricane if it did get downgraded to a tropical storm.
While moving over cuba – and we see that it’ll still have some upper level ridge overhead but that’s going to be counteracted by that upper level, trough that’s going to be moving it to that northward position and then eventually northeast. So, by the time we get to wednesday, the european model is saying: it’s going to be right around uh, the tampa st p clearwater area and the gfs model is taking it towards the panhandle of florida before making landfall, and we see that this is where the Upper level trough will start to dig into the storm some dry air intrusion could be trying to enter the center of the storm with some of the increased wind shear, as that storm up interacts with the upper level trough. Now, if we look at the precipitation amounts, we see that you can clearly just see the defined track of the storm on the gfs model on the right, where we could see anywhere between 50 to 250 milliliters of precipitation when we get closer to the united states. I will transition over to inches, but while it’s traveling through the caribbean, they all use the metric system so i’m going to use the metric system as well so here’s. The key messages from the national hurricane center on the left is in english. On the right is in spanish. You can pause this to take a chance to read it so the official forecast from deciphering weather for hurricane elsa before the next five days.
We currently have winds of 85 miles per hour, a ma minimum low pressure center of 991 millibars it’s moving west northwest at 29 miles per hour. Hasn’T slowed down just yet i’m forecasting this to stay a hurricane for the next 24 hours and then, as we get through on sunday that’s, when we could see rapid intensification into a category two three and possibly by the time we get to monday morning, uh before Making landfall over cuba up to a possible category for hurricane based on the h wharf model, and then it could, depending on the exact track over cuba, or how much land interaction we have could be downgraded back to a tropical storm before re strengthening into a hurricane. On tuesday and then making landfall with florida somewhere between tampa and the panhandle florida on wednesday. Thank you for watching this video. If you liked it, please hit the like button and leave a comment. Please share this video with your family and friends on social media and, if you’re new and, like detailed weather breakdowns hit the subscribe button and notification bell to get all of my upcoming videos.