Or so. If you like, detailed weather breakdowns hit the subscribe button and notification bell to get one of my upcoming videos, so we’re looking at the latest satellite image of the atlantic basin uh today is july, 4th happy independence day, fourth of july, for the united states, and we See tropical storm elsa moving between jamaica, haiti and cuba, as we speak this morning to the north, there you see a cold front that’s one of those possibilities where we could see a formation of a tropical system over the uh this next week, then off the coast Of africa we have a tropical wave that we’re going to be monitoring and then in the caribbean, possibly late next week late this week into early next week, we could see a tropical system develop as well so here’s the latest satellite image of tropical storm elsa. As you can see, it’s starting to try to get itself better, organized it’s wrapping its thunderstorm convection around its low pressure center finally that’s because it slowed down as well yesterday was moving at 31 miles per hour. Today is moving west northwest at 13 miles per hour. So substantially slower compared to what it’s been doing so now, that’s allowing it to organize and that organization that’s slowing down, could even help it re strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall with cuba later on today into tonight, and we also see that it could also Uh re strengthen as after going over cuba back into a strong tropical storm while in the gulf of mexico before making landfall but cute with uh with florida.

So currently it’s got winds of 65 miles per hour, so it only needs about nine more miles per hour to be classified hurricane again, which is why there are uh tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches in effect for cuba, so here’s the latest spaghetti track guidance models Showing where elsa could go over the next five days, you see it’s moving over cuba today and tonight, and then, by the time we get to monday it’s, going to be moving just to the west or over florida and then from there it’s going to go up. The east coast, through the carolinas and then by day five, will be off the coast of new jersey and long island and depending on which track it takes, would allow it to become a hurricane again, as one model is indicating, could do in the next 24 hours, Which would be just before it makes landfall with cuba, then again uh a little bit later on around days four and five uh when it’s off the carolina coast. If it stays off the water, it could be uh re strengthening there, as well with the warmer sea surface temperatures from the gulf stream. So here we see the european model and it takes it up over cuba, then over the florida peninsula through the florida keys and then really dissipates. After that, the canadian model has taken a similar track to the european, but actually keeps it further off the coast, so that allows it off the carolinas to restrengthen as well into a strong tropical storm, maybe even a hurricane, and then the gfs model takes it into The eastern gulf of mexico, after course in cuba, re strengthening before making landfall just around the tampa sea, saint pete area, or just north of there, in the elbow bend of florida.

So one of the reasons why it could re strengthen into a hurricane at least later today is because we have this upper level. Ridge, overhead and that’s gon na have very little wind shear, especially now that this storm has slowed down from 31 miles per hour yesterday. To 13 miles per hour today, and this upper level ridge will still be in place when it re emerges in the florida straits and the eastern gulf mexico on tuesday morning, as it approaches florida now, depending on where it emerges from if it’s further to the east. In that florida street area it’s not going to have a chance to really strengthen itself, but if it goes towards the gulf of mexico and possibly gets close enough to that loop current with this upper level. Ridge, overhead, with good exhaust, as you can see, coming out of the storm, we would have a chance for it to redevelop into at least a stronger tropical storm, a moderate tropical storm and if it underwent rapid intensification, possibly back into a hurricane kind of like how It rapidly intensified on its approach to barbados. So here we have the probabilities of seeing tropical storm force winds, obviously jamaica, haiti and cuba you’re in the 100 category. Right now, as it’s right near you, those percentages drop off as we get further and further away from the storm, but the chances will increase as the storm it gets closer to you. These storm winds will also bring storm surge to the florida keys they’re, expecting one to two feet right now and we’re also gon na see across cuba and florida peninsula anywhere between two to six inches of rain from this storm.

So there’s a slight chance to see flash flooding across florida here’s the latest key messages from the national hurricane center on tropical storm elsa. You can take a chance to pause this on the left, it’s on in english, on the right it’s in spanish, so the official forecast from the ciphering weather has tropical storm elsa with 65 mile per hour, winds a low pressure center of a thousand seven millibars and A west northwest direction of 13 miles per hour. It’S gon na cross cuba sometime tonight into tomorrow, and then re emerge early tuesday morning, somewhere in the florida streets or eastern gulf of mexico before crossing over florida, uh and making landfall, either through the keys in the tampa st pete area or even as far north. As the elbow of florida and then by the time we get to day, five will be knocking on the door in the mid atlantic and northeast so from there after elsa. If you saw on the animation of the gfs model earlier, and also the uh, the canadian there’s, a couple of possibilities of seeing a another tropical system develop so we’re. Looking at thursday july, 8th on the left is the canadian model and there’s a tropical wave that could emerge from africa. That shows a chance for some cyclonic vorticity and tropical development. The gfs actually has a different wave that it’s monitoring, but that one has a broad area of circulation, but i want to draw your attention to just to the right of where tropical storm elsa will be uh elsa according to the gfs, will be over georgia and South carolina on thursday uh, but just north of bermuda is another area of cyclonic vorticity that is associated with that stalled cold front along the east coast of the united states and that could uh generate some cyclonic vorticity for tropical development as well as that will be Over the gulf stream and could develop a warm core system, it will have very little wind shear compared to the tropical wave down near africa.

So we will monitor that one as well and you can see it moving to the northeast uh as we get into friday july 9th, but then there’s, another tropical wave that comes off the coast of africa, that the gfs is picking up on. That could see some signs of tropical development as well, but those areas the further north you go in the tropic in the main development region, we’ll see that saharan dust layer plus there’s a little bit of wind shear, so that area is not ripe. Right now for development, unless you’re further to the south away from that saharan dust layer and in that blue area kind of like the canadian tropical wave, where it’s a little bit further south and in that lesser wind, shear environment. Where is the possibility of seeing development? But then, also by the time we get to next weekend, we see some cyclonic vorticity starting to spin up around the central american gyra again uh near honduras and nicaragua and then north of costa rica and panama. So this is on saturday july 10th and if you look by the time we get to monday july 12th early next week, the gfs is indicating that a closed system of low pressures uh will develop near the surface and if it’s a little bit further away from The coast than this model is indicating, i think it could develop. It’S right now saying right off the coast would be a thousand three millibar low pressure center with tropical storm force winds, and if this has an up level ridge overhead, like it’s, indicating on the model right now, i could see this develop into a tropical storm sometime.

Next weekend into early next week, the european model is showing chances of development off the coast of africa, as well as north of europe for tropical depression over the next uh zero to three days and two to five days. But tropical storm uh conditions not so much, except for off the coast of uh, the east coast and that’s, mostly associated with elsa. Thank you for watching this video. If you liked it, please hit the like button and leave a comment. Please share this video with your family and friends on social media and, if you’re new and, like detailed weather breakdowns hit the subscribe button and notification bell to get all of my upcoming videos.

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