Tropical cyclone, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory | Major Hurricane Elsa in the Carribbean?
The national hurricane center has just issued its first advisory for potential tropical cyclone 5, which could be moving through the caribbean and up towards the gulf of mexico and florida as a potential hurricane. If you like, detailed weather breakdowns hit the subscribe button and notification bell to get all of my upcoming videos, so we’re looking at the latest satellite image of the atlantic basin, and we see the remnants of 95 l moving through the lesser antilles islands, bringing some heavy Rain and squally weather to barbados and granada and all the other islands in the caribbean and then right behind it. We have our newly designated potential tropical cyclone 5 by the national hurricane center. They issued their first advisory as of 5 pm. So if we look at the latest satellite image, we see that it’s getting very well organized, but it’s still not quite a closed low system, which is why they classified it. A potential cyclone and what i mean by that is they have winds that are moving around the circulation of this storm, but it’s missing that westerly component on the bottom half of the circulation, to close it off to make it a closed low pressure system at the Center once that occurs, this will be designated a tropical depression. If the winds are only at 35 miles per hour, if they’re greater than 40 miles per hour, it’ll become tropical storm elsa so invest 95. L uh has a zero percent chance of forming now so they’re.
No longer going to be monitoring that one all of our attention is going to be on this potential tropical cyclone 5. For the immediate future. You see its cone of uncertainty, has it moving through the caribbean and then potentially through the sweet spot between hispaniola, jamaica and cuba, staying away from land, which would be the most devastating track because it would stay over water and potentially not weaken. We do have tropical storm watches, in effect for barbados and some of the lesser antilles, islands, and you see the spaghetti track guidance models over the next 72 hours, they’re pretty consistent, moving just to the south of hispaniola and then after there it’s all depending uh, where This goes because of the high pressure system, how strong it is and its position, and also how strong, potentially elsa could get because the stronger it gets. It could push a little bit at that high pressure and that would cause it to potentially go a little bit more north if the high pressure wasn’t strong enough, if high pressure is strong, it could keep this in that more southern track and away from making landfall With haiti or cuba, or jamaica, and go right between those islands and keep it as a hurricane as it moves through the caribbean before crossing over cuba into the gulf of mexico or if it’s, a weaker high pressure system could even go through haiti and cuba. Up towards the bahamas, and then the east coast of the united states, potentially now the latest model intensity guidance potentially could see a category 3 max hurricane out of this storm.
If it takes that one particular track, like i said right between all the islands over water, it looks like it’s definitely become at least a category 1 hurricane based on the majority of models and then from there we could see cat 2 or 3 depending on the Circumstances will it stay over water? Will it interact with land that’s still too soon to see we’ll keep an eye on it. So, looking at the european and gfs models as of right now, this is where they are located. Black is 97 l. Now, potential cyclone 5. purple was invest 95. L moving this forward to tomorrow july 1st, and we see both are showing at least a tropical depression. Gfs is showing a tropical storm uh forming by by sometime tomorrow. I think this will form sometime tonight into at least the tropical depression, as we get to two days from now on friday july, 2nd this potential tropical cyclone is going to be knocking on the door of the lesser antilles, islands, good chance. It could be moving right over barbados, so that’s why the national hurricane center has issued those tropical storm watches in effect, as we move to day three on july 3rd on saturday, the gfs has this as a hurricane moving through the caribbean just to the south of Puerto rico and the european actually has it making landfall with hispaniola and that’s. Why it doesn’t look up as intense as uh. It does on the gfs, because it’s already interacting with land and weakening and then when we move to day five on monday july 5th, the european has it crossing over hispaniola and because of that, the mountains destroyed it, and then it moved through the bahamas as a Weak uh tropical system and then is located just off the east coast of the united states, that’s the most northern track.
It could go uh based on the european model. The gfs has it going through that sweet spot just parallel to haiti and cuba, as it goes through those waters and potentially will weaken to a tropical storm at that point. If it interacts with some of that land, if it stays further away and stays over water, it could maintain hurricane strength, and then we also have to look behind it in that red hexagon. Another potential tropical wave coming in the week of elsa that we have to worry about five days from now, but we’ll see if that pans out. If we look at the wind, shear and moisture content, you see that 97 now potential tropical cyclone 5 elsa whatever you want to call this storm has an upper level ridge overhead, so it’s got very little winds here, except on that southern side. Because of the easterly trade winds being very strong near the surface, so that’s what’s, causing it not to have that westerly component yet to close off the low pressure system at the surface once that occurs uh we will have that tropical depression or storm uh designation, but You see it’s got a very well defined, moisture bubble and it’s not having any drier intrusion thanks to the low wind shear on the northern half of the storm, so that saharan dust layer is not getting to the storm. So when we move to friday, you see it’s got that very well defined exhaust system of the upper level ridge right overhead, so that’s.
Why it’s strengthened on the gfs to a 987 millibar uh potential uh strong, her uh, strong tropical storm, slash weak uh hurricane by the time it’s approaching barbados on on the gfs model and then by day, five uh? We see this is where the discrepancies in the model start to occur. Uh. What track is it really gon na take uh? Is it getting it curved north uh because of the upper level trough that’s going to be potentially over the southeast united states or will allow it to go into the gulf of mexico before recurving back around uh to the atlantic? Uh we’ll have to track these and monitor these monitor models very closely. But if we look at the h wharf, which is our hurricane model, we see that by the time we get to july 2nd early in the morning on friday, we see that potentially elsa could become a hurricane on july, 2nd so potentially become a tropical depression or Storm tonight, most likely, if not at least by tomorrow and then by friday morning, we could have this rapidly intensify into a hurricane based on the h wharf model and then, when we go just another day forward to saturday uh. The h wharf model has this just south of hispaniola as a potential category 3 hurricane that’s – that one model showing a potential for a major hurricane in the caribbean, because we have that upper level ridge, overhead, very little wind, shear, uh, no saharan dust at that point By the time we get to the caribbean sea, so potentially hats are off.
This could become a very devastating storm, so we need to watch out for this and then after the caribbean, the gfs, depending on the strength of that uh high pressure center from the bermuda high the strength of the storm itself. We could see this curve into the gulf of mexico. Go over the loop current re re strengthen if it weakens going over cuba and then potentially make landfall somewhere in florida as a hurricane. If it re strengthens so the official forecast from deciphering weather for potential tropical cyclone 5 has wind speeds right now of 35 miles per hour once it gets that westerly component to the low pressure center. This would make it a tropical depression. Uh it’s got a minimum low pressure center of a thousand eight millibars it’s moving west northwest at 21 miles per hour and it’s forecasted to move through the caribbean and potentially to the gulf of mexico uh. By the time we get to day five on july 5th. Thank you for watching this video. If you liked it, please hit the like button and leave a comment. Please share this video with your family and friends on social media and, if you’re new and, like detailed weather breakdowns hit the subscribe button and notification bell to get all of my upcoming videos.