France, Vaccine Delta goes to Europe
Well in the uk and then um, we want to look at the changing symptoms of covid19 as well today, because the the clinical picture, the clinical presentation that the signs and symptoms has definitely changed and we’ll be looking at that and how that varies in people that Are unvaccinated with one and two doses of vaccine, then, if we have time there’s a large trial being launched by oxford university on uh ivamectin. So we’ll look at that as well and after yesterday’s meta analysis that we looked at so starting off with a bit of orientation from the english speaking countries, first of all, well, um, it’s, really quite self explanatory isn’t, it australia, new zealand. Of course, canada case is coming down very nicely united states falling very gradually to stroke flat ireland with a higher number of cases per capita and again fairly level there in ireland, the united kingdom. Well, really, the less said the better i mean it’s, just a dramatic increase isn’t it and, of course, as we know, this is the uh, the delta variant that’s, powering this increase. Now. What i want to look at now is how this is going to affect europe. So we’ve seen these dropping cases now here just a few representative european countries, germany, at the bottom, italy, france, i’ve, left the united states on there as a comparator. So you can see if you’re in the states, where you are you’re kind of in the middle of the european average at the moment in terms of new cases – belgium, spain, the united kingdom highest, of course, but i’m – afraid quite a few of these countries.
In fact, probably all of them are going to follow a similar trajectory to the united kingdom as a result of this um delta variant. Now, let’s look at that now in a little more detail, so delta variant first identified in october in india, so first identified in india. Now india went on to the red list. It was announced on the 19th of april, but there was a good warning in advance that, four days later, it wasn’t going to be implemented until the 23rd of april. Of course, this meant that every flight between the 19th and the 23rd of april from india was absolutely packed. Uh prices went up, demand went up and um it. Basically, there was too much notice, given i’m afraid, whereas the difference with the australian situation is they just canceled the flight straight away? Um now united arab emirates imposed a ban from india flights or strict quarantine for india flights from the 22nd of april france from the 24th of april united states. Well really, this is. This is hard to explain actually uh. They didn’t put the um india onto their equivalent of their red list until the 4th of may so you know we. We were criticizing the uk for being late, then, and, of course, on this channel we were advocating, am i we were advocating stopping flights from india um as soon as we heard about this, so called double mutation as it was called them before.
It was even called the indian mutant, but of course that didn’t happen – and we are – we are where we are now now uh all this was during a mass surge in india. So again it was a classic example of reactivity. The authorities here in the uk uae. France, united states reacted to the massive surge in india rather than anticipating it, but we could see it coming weeks before that and we talked about that that’s that’s done now so that’s kind of why we are where we’re at in the uk. Now. Why? Given that there were flights going to france go given that there were flights going to the united states and other parts of the world from india? Why has the uk been so disproportionately affected because it has we’ve probably got more india, casey, india variant delta variant cases than there are in indian output in terms of percentages, it’s, 95 percent, a delta variant? Now in the uk, why is the uk so disproportionately affected? Well, the answer to that seems to be that um april. So why is the uk worst? Is it the worst or is it the first to be affected, which is probably going to be the first but anyway, we’ll come on to that so april? Those 20 000 people arrived in the uk from india in the first three weeks of the month at least 20 000 people, of course march there’s, probably about another 20 000 or something.
So what this means is quite as quite a few of these people would have been infected with the delta variant. There was multiple introductions, so many people that i am many people positive for the delta variant would have come to uh different parts of the uk. Somebody gone scotland, someone had gone to england, someone had gone to bradford, someone had gone to london, uh someone had gone to wales, so they went all over the place. So this meant there was multiple seeding events now, even if it is even if it’s a highly contagious variant as with a delta variant. If just one case or two cases arrives in the country, then it’s probable, it’s just going to die out that’s quite likely it’s going to die out. But if you have multiple seeding events, pretty soon it’s going to get to a super spread, who’s going to spread it to a lot of people and then it’s going to spread significantly. So the reason the uk is worst affected or first affected is that there was multiple seeding events. I think that’s the main reason for that, but i think unfortunately it is first because it is increasing now in the united states, as we know and we’re going to look at evidence that it’s increasing uh in europe dramatically now as well. So i think that means the uk’s first. Would it ever arrived in the uk? Eventually, yes, of course, but if it had arrived a month later, we’d have millions more vaccine doses given um.
If millions more vaccine doses would given, then more people would be doubly vaccinated and we know that’s associated with a high level of protection. So was it a complete hash up? Yes, i think it’s probably well. I think it what no question it was. We should have stopped those flights from india until we had the vaccine program more advanced, but we didn’t, so there we are so now what’s happening is because of the errors of the united kingdom. We are now an epicenter of the delta variant in europe and it’s. Now, spreading from the uk to europe so um in much the same way that the coronavirus originally spread from italy due to people largely going skiing way back at the start of the first wave, so uh uk’s fault, perhaps more this time than other times now. Eu health officials are saying 90 of cases, will be the delta variant they’re pretty sure about this by late august, so it’s increasing exponentially at the moment at the expense of other variants, because it’s out competing the other variants. So this is what’s happening now, angela merkel. Chancellor merkel has said europe is on thin ice. Direct quote. I assume she said it in german, assume, that’s a translation. All member states should quarantine arrivals from the uk. Well, i must say i agree with chancellor angela merkel. 100. All european union or european countries should uh quarantine. People coming from the uk, because 95 of our cases now are the delta variant um.
It is. This is a risk to the world, to be quite honest. Angela merkel actually said publicly headache and running those linked to the delta variant now headache most common feature running those very common feature as well. We’Re going to be talking more about this specifically because i’m not going to comment on that now, but um. A lot of people still don’t realize this change in symptomatology and it’s still not reflected on the nhs guidelines yet which is pretty slow and not really well reflected in the mainstream media. So um do do, watch that in a few minutes time now, um european center for disease prevention and control. Preliminary data shows that it can also infect individuals that have received only one dose of the current available vaccine. So one dose of vaccine not a good level of protection, only giving about 33 protection, meaning about there’s still about 77 chance. Someone can catch it, of course, so one vaccine dose small level of protection against symptomatic infection, but um. They also say uh. Two doses offered high protection against the delta variants, and this is the b1 617.2 that we are talking about. So two levels of vaccine needed not only are two levels of vaccine needed. We need to wait for two or three weeks after the second dose there’s a long delay effect on this france, so germany’s on thin ice europe’s on thin ice um, france, delta variant in the south west of the country in this last lands region.
70 of the cases are delta variant already nationally. 10 percent of cases are delta variant, but we know these are probably going to double the doubling time is about seven days in most situations. So this time next week in france, i would expect nationally the delta variant to be twenty percent of cases. Then a week after that, forty percent, then a week after that, eighty percent and of course you can see from that it’s not going to take long for us to get up to the the 90 percent that the eu officials are predicting um france only 30 fully Vaccinated, so really that what that really means is 70 of the population have quite a predisposition or potential to be infected here only 30 fully vaccinated president emmanuel macron. We should all be vigilant because of the delta variant is coming so he’s quite clear. It is. It is coming, it is coming. We see that it affects people who have not yet been vaccinated or have only had one dose, which means that we have we have to. We have to be even faster in this vaccination campaign and the vaccination campaigns in europe are speeding up but, as we’ve said, only 30 percent fully vaccinated and even if even theoretically, of another 30 could get vaccinated kind of overnight. Then it’s going to be two or three weeks before they get the the full protective effect from the second dose of the vaccine. Russia um case is another 20 000 cases in russia alone in the last 24 hours 569 deaths, so things are still high, even though we know these are, or they certainly were under reported um highest figures since january and russia, moscow, the delta variant, is now 90 Of new infections, now what we’ve often seen in russia is that um, the increasing cases – and in this case the increase in the delta variance starts in moscow then seems to spread out to the rest of the country.
So delta variant is now 90 percent of the cases in moscow, accounting for the great increase in cases and sadly, we’re starting to increase in deaths in russia as well, and this will spread around the rest of the country in time could spread more slowly in russia Because, of course, of the vast distances in many remote areas, now russian vaccination program is abysmal, to put it mildly. First, those 12.8 in the population fully vaccinated 9.9 percent, so 90 of the population are prone to getting the delta variant. This is largely due to the very very poor public relations that started the vaccination program in russia, but let’s hope people in russia are realizing now that this delta variant is a real risk. 20 000 cases a day getting on for 600 deaths a day and that’s going up in moscow, it’s gone up already and it’s going to go up in the rest of the country let’s. So this let’s say this is a bit of a wake up call for the vaccination program in in in russia, because it would really be good to get a lot more people protected portugal, new restrictions in lisbon, tagus valley, one or two other areas in portugal. New restrictions delta variant more than 50 of new cases in portugal. So already we see it’s taking over in portugal and in another week’s time 10 days time in portugal, that’s going to be 90, 95 i’m afraid one of the cabinet ministers, um in portugal has admitted uh an attempt to contain the delta variant could have been that They could have acted differently, as is what is what they have said.
So portugal made a bit of a mess of it, not least by having so many british tourists and, of course, for a while. Portugal was on the green list because they had such low numbers of cases they let brits in because they depend on tourism for a lot of their income, and now they’ve got 50 of the delta variant. Now the precise phylogenetics i don’t know of those that don’t think they’ve been done yet. But i think we can pretty well assume that those portuguese cases came from the united kingdom and they came to the united kingdom from india because we didn’t stop the flight. So we know the story now now: euro 2020 uh football matches germany versus england in london next tuesday, friday today so that’s on next tuesday, 60 000 fans attending 75 capacity in the stadium 60 000 fans attending germany versus england. People coming over from germany, german world medical association comments on this um and they say traveling to the uk, runs the risk of getting infected with a delta variant. I consider it irresponsible for even vaccinated people to travel to london in this situation. Yeah i’m sure tens of thousands of them will – and this is going to take potentially thousands of cases of the delta variant back to germany. Now we have said previously that this virus, for example, when we saw a lot of protests in the united states, that was not increased associated with the surge after that, because it was outdoors, but that was the original wild type variant.
Then the the uk variant 40. More transmissible the delta variant about 60 percent, more transmissible than that. That means theoretically it’s 124 percent, more transmissible than the original variant, the delta variant more well more than double it would appear from that uh as infectious, and it is looking like this one is spreading outside more so than the original ones did. So. These mass participation events a serious risk in the light of the delta variant. There’S no real question in my mind that that game should be cancelled, just put it back for a month or something till everyone’s maximum, while until everyone’s vaccinated that that could mean that there are multiple seeding events in germany and, of course, the reason that the delta Variant got such a hold in the united kingdom was the multiple seeding events from india. Now germany seems to be allowing exactly the same thing to happen, and the british authorities seem to be allowing the germans to come to the uk to get fighters. It just doesn’t. Make any sense at all, for the sake of a game of football, um cases will dramatically rise in germany. I would predict, as a result of that, just exactly as we’re saying as we predicted on this channel, that cases would dramatically rise in the uk. As a result of seeding events from india, so um i’ve got till next tuesday to sort that out let’s hope they do it evidence for that. Denmark asked four thousand fans to get tested after a football game again in the euros three people tested delta, positive last thursday’s, denmark, v belgium match so again.
We’Ve got four thousand fans. Four thousand danish fans attended three have so far tested positive or with the delta variant, and they looks like they picked this up at the match. All three thought to have been infected by the the danish authorities at the match, presumably outdoor or, of course, with the venues – the burger bars, the cups of tea, the the bars the toilets, everything that goes with this, so um it’s it’s a dangerous situation. Now the the uk, of course, we’ve, looked at the increase, uh click, click on the site and it’s a bit depressing. Actually, at the moment, cases are hospitalizations of deaths are up cases up quite a lot, as we saw in the graphic, uh debts and hospitalizations up less, but up some um so uk in the grip of the delta variant. At the moment, thankfully, transposing into less hospitalizations and deaths nhs covered up is up and running now, so i’ve got a like a covered, uh covered uh passport sort of thing. What do they call it covered pass? I think they call it and boris johnson has said fully vaccinated. People offered a good way forward for resuming travel, so it looks like this app. So if you download the if you’re in england, at least if you download the nhs app, you can then put your um covered pass on it and it will have your vaccination status on it. So because i’ve been fortunate enough to have two doses of vaccine now, i’ve got a full full covered pass.
Now i’ve actually gone on a bit longer than i meant to they’re discussing those european issues. So i think what we’ll do is the new signs and symptoms for covered 19 i’ll do those at the start of the next video, because a lot of people only watch the first few minutes and i think that’s really important information to get across so we’ll put That bang at the first to the next video, then hopefully it’ll reach more people, because i think it’s really important that people learn about the new clinical presentations that we are seeing now in covert 19 and coronavirus 2 infection.