Solar flare, Sun, Coronal mass ejection A Light Graze and the First Radiation Storm of Cycle 25 | Space Weather News 06.02.2021
, those stories and more in the news this Music week. This space weather forecast is sponsored in part by millersville university. Come get certified in broadcast space weather visit, millersville.edu swen, although the space weather this week, isn’t quite as exciting as last week, region 2824 has still been up to its old tricks. As we take a look at our front side, sun, you can see. Region 2824 is it’s just about to rotate off of the sun’s west limb. It fires off a near m class, flare and launches a massive solar storm. This solar storm is the one that’s actually going to be grazing earth off to the west here in the next day or so, but it also launched a radiation storm it’s, the first radiation storm we’ve, had of this new cycle and even though it only lasted a Little bit more than a day, it’s, definitely a wake up call to. Let us know that these events are getting more eruptive and getting stronger. Meanwhile, we also have a coronal hole. That’S going to be sending us some fast, solar wind as it rotates into the earth strike zone. So on top of that solar storm that’s going to graze us to the west we’re going to expect a little bit of undisturbed conditions here over the next few days. Possibly active to maybe even storm levels until things begin to calm down now, as we switch to our far sighted sun, this is stereo a and it’s looking at the sun, pretty much from the side.
You can see the new regions developing that’s region 27 or 28 27 in the north and 28 28 in the south, and you can see some regions behind it as well, and some of these regions, especially the ones in the south, are becoming eruptive. So it looks like we will continue to have more solar storm players in the future and possibly a chance for big flares once again, so it looks like solar cycle 25 is really ramping up switching to our d wrap model. Now this is a model of the upper layer of the ionosphere in our upper atmosphere. That gets hammered from things like solar flares and solar radiation storms. And as we take a look early on the 29th, you can watch but high latitudes, both in the south and in the north at intensity beginning to ramp up. This is what we call polar cap, absorption and it’s, because we’ve got these energetic particles raining down on our upper atmosphere now granted. This particular storm did not last all that long and it really wasn’t all that intense, but storms like these that are much more long, lasting and far more intense, do impact communications and navigation at high latitudes. So, as solar cycle continues to ramp up expect to see this model a lot more often because we’re going to start seeing a lot more of these kinds of storms switching to our moon. We are now passing through the third quarter, phase on our way to a new moon and by the seventh.
The moon will be only about 10, illuminated so now’s a great time to catch those dim objects in the sky, switching to our solar storm conditions and aurora possibilities over the coming week. We are anticipating that grazing incidence from that solar storm that’s going to pass us off to the west plus. We are also expecting a little bit of fast solar wind from a coronal hole over the next couple days. So high latitudes, no is expecting active conditions, but we do have up to about a 45 chance of a major storm, and this should continue for the next few days and kind of keep things unsettled. A little bit at mid, latitudes we’re also expecting active conditions, but we do have up to about a 10 percent chance of a minor storm, but things will be a lot more fleeting at mid latitudes, so you’re aurora photographers, if you’re at high latitudes, you could expect The show over the next few days at mid, latitudes, well it’s a lot harder to tell you – could have something really impactful. If that solar storm does more than just graze us, but then we might get nothing at all, because that solar storm may completely pass us to the west, and we just don’t know until it hits us so anyway, either way whether or not you’re going to see Aurora at mid latitudes, or only at high latitudes, expect things to begin to calm down as we move in through the weekend and then next week we do have one more chance for some more aurora switching to our solar flare and particle radiation.
Storm outlook over the coming week, we actually have multiple bright regions on the earth facing sun this week and we are paying very close attention to region 28 27 because it’s, showing of signs of have being an elevated flare risk. So over the next three days, noah’s giving us about a five percent chance of an m class flare, and this means gps users on earth day side. We could be seeing some radio blackouts. So just be aware, if your gps reception gets a little glitchy, we might be having an m class flare on the sun, also because of those bright regions. We do have an elevated solar flux. This week we are easily in the mid 70s and possibly boosting a bit higher, especially as even new regions rotate into earth view, so these conditions will easily continue, and this means that amateur radio operators and emergency responders are going to enjoy some decent propagation we’re. Getting up into the higher range of marginal, thank goodness finally, and it doesn’t look like it’s ever going to go back down so we’re continuing to be uh. Pleased about that and now also because we are still crawling out of solar minimum. The cosmic ray flux is a bit more intense than we’d like it to be so you frequent flyers – and this does include air crew, who fly over 800 hours annually and fly at high, latitudes and high altitudes. You are in the moderate range, the d2 minor range for radiation dose, and this does include prenatal passengers.
So please take this into consideration in your flight plans. So, although the space weather isn’t quite as exciting as it was last week, it’s not really a dud either. We do have a solar storm that’s on its way and it should graze us off to the west here in the next day or so, and it’s going to be accompanied by a bit of fast, solar, wind, so aurora photographers, you do have a chance to catch. Some aurora, especially at high latitudes. We could see some storming conditions at mid latitudes. The chances are a lot more fleeting, but you know it’s all going to depend upon whether that solar storm actually hits us or just kind of disappears off, and we never see anything at all so keep your fingers crossed and only if you’re diligent should you chase. If you’re at mid latitudes now also because we are seeing multiple bright regions on the earth facing disk this week and more seem to be emerging all the time, amateur radio operators and emergency responders, your propagation on earth’s dayside should be pretty good and you should continue To see that boosting a little bit by little bit as the cycle continues to ramp up so that’s always good news, and now you gps users. Well, you know we don’t have a huge solar storm that’s going to hit earth. It may just be a slight disturbance and you know we do have a small m flare risk, so radio blackouts aren’t completely out of the question, but all things considered is not a lot of heavy duty stuff coming at earth this week in terms of space weather.
So as long as you kind of be vigilant, around dawn and around dusk and, of course, stay away from aurora and your gps reception should be pretty top notch: i’m tamatha skove the space weather woman.